Pulse Capital

Proof

Every opportunity we have ever surfaced, with the rule that decides it written down before the outcome existed. Nothing here is chosen after the fact — the scan writes each row, and this page has no filter that could hide one.

Corrections: 9 results have been corrected and now read as No result. Each compared two prices quoted against different share counts — a stock split between the entry and the resolution — so the difference was never a return. Together they carried -272.4R, which the record above no longer includes. The superseded rows are still listed below, marked, and never edited — corrected 12 August 2026.

Calls on record
1652
Resolved
139 of 571 right
Awaiting resolution
1081
Recording since
25 August 2026

139 of 571 resolved calls cleared their bar — 24.3%

Every resolved call is in that denominator, including the ones that went nowhere. Counting only clear wins and clear losses would drop them and inflate the rate.

Proof: how every opportunity played out
Graded outcomes: 571
not yet enough data to prove the grade order
  • confirmed48% hit rate (from 107 calls)
  • likely51% hit rate (from 387 calls)

Educational analysis, not advice. We hide any rate until we have enough calls to report it honestly.

The ledger

Showing 61 to 70 of 1652, newest first. Ordering is fixed and there is no filter, so nothing can be sorted or hidden out of view.

What counts as right is the bar we committed to when the call was made: the move it has to clear, from the price at the time, by the date shown. It was written down before the outcome existed and cannot be changed afterwards. Grading is a symmetric band, not a single line — clearing the bar is right, moving the same distance the other way is wrong, and landing between the two is neither. A near miss is recorded as its own outcome rather than rounded into a win or a loss, because rounding it either way would quietly flatter or damage every tier.

InstrumentConvictionPublishedDecided byWhat counts as rightOutcomeMethodRecord hash
APAmpco-Pittsburgh Corp.
confirmed26 Aug 202618 Sept 2026Recorded rule: vertical_credit_spread_at_expiry
Awaiting result
proof-methodology-v21881f937ab3b…
ATEXAnterix Inc.
confirmed26 Aug 20269 Sept 2026Falls 6.7% from $90.38
Awaiting result
proof-methodology-v249a6aaf57e96…
BBGIBeasley Broadcast Group, Inc.
confirmed26 Aug 20269 Sept 2026Falls 17.3% from $19.72
Awaiting result
proof-methodology-v2c8431af10f8d…
ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.
confirmed26 Aug 20269 Sept 2026Moves 9.4% either way from $108.90
Awaiting result
proof-methodology-v28db4f85ba8ed…
XBITXBiotech Inc
confirmed26 Aug 20269 Sept 2026Rises 2.7% from $2.3100
Awaiting result
proof-methodology-v20eb7adf04be0…
ZDPYZoned Properties Inc
likely26 Aug 20269 Sept 2026Rises 5.6% from $0.4510
Awaiting result
proof-methodology-v207f8e87acac2…
AIOTPowerFleet, Inc.
confirmed26 Aug 20269 Sept 2026Falls 7.9% from $3.0100
Awaiting result
proof-methodology-v2d6c04b6a38cf…
CRCLCircle Internet Group
likely26 Aug 20269 Sept 2026Falls 10.0% from $87.72
Awaiting result
proof-methodology-v22c1b9a1803a2…
ICMBInvestcorp Credit Management BDC Inc
likely26 Aug 20269 Sept 2026Moves 15.1% either way from $0.8299
Awaiting result
proof-methodology-v2102bfd57c824…
VMETVersamet Royalties Corporation Common Stock
likely26 Aug 20269 Sept 2026Falls 6.9% from $10.71
Awaiting result
proof-methodology-v244ef500cabe2…
Backtested record
replayed history, not live calls

Before any of this went live, we ran the engine over 2019 to 2026 of market history to see whether the signal held up: 1,434 company events, measured against 6,175 ordinary weeks for the same names. The test was designed before it was run, so the results could not be tuned afterwards to look better.

Move size (in normal-swing multiples)Event weeksBaseline weeksHow much more oftenAfter removing the market’s move
≥1.0σ52.4%23.9%2.19x (likely range 1.79 to 2.69x)2.65x (likely range 2.09 to 3.34x)
≥1.5σ36.5%9.8%3.74x (likely range 2.72 to 5.15x)4.67x (likely range 3.27 to 6.66x)
≥2.0σ26.2%4.1%6.4x (likely range 4.03 to 10.08x)7.9x (likely range 5.03 to 12.74x)

The catalyst edge holds up whether the market is rising or falling: 4.00x more often in weeks the market rose, 3.29x in weeks it fell.

Momentum is honestly closed: net of the market’s own move, its 10-day directional hit rate is 49.1% (CI 47.0%–51.4%), no better than a coin flip, which is why momentum on its own adds no confidence and we price these trades assuming no edge.

  • Replay evidence, not the live record: these grades come from replayed history, not from calls the engine published in production. The live track record above grades itself as each call resolves.
  • Today's list of names only: companies that disappeared before our data began are missing, which can flatter results. Names that delist after 2026 keep their record, so this only improves over time.
  • Earnings dates as known today: we did not record when past dates were revised, so a small quirk remains that if anything understates the result. New revisions are now captured.
  • The replayed set of names differs from what the live scan shows day to day, so these rates describe the signal itself, not the exact mix you would have seen on any given day.

How to check this yourself

What this does not claim

Educational analysis, not investment advice. Pulse surfaces and explains structures; it does not recommend securities or know your full circumstances.