Every opportunity we have ever surfaced, with the rule that decides it written down before the outcome existed. Nothing here is chosen after the fact — the scan writes each row, and this page has no filter that could hide one.
Corrections: 12 results have been corrected and now read as No result. Each compared two prices quoted against different share counts, a stock split between the entry and the resolution, so the difference was never a return. Together they carried -277.5R, which the record above no longer includes. The superseded rows are still listed below, marked, and never edited. Corrected 7 October 2026.
Method change: from 7 October 2026, under proof-methodology-v3, a call whose bar to clear was under half a percent no longer counts towards the average return. A bar that small makes any move look enormous: 31 such calls carried -137.39R between them. They still count as right or wrong, and no stored result was changed. The average return per idea moved from -0.04 R to +0.09 R over 1,031 calls with a measured return. New calls never set a bar under half a percent. The rates by conviction further down are reported per method version; the totals at the top of this page cover every version.
Every resolved call is in that denominator, including the ones that went nowhere. Counting only clear wins and clear losses would drop them and inflate the rate. This count pools every method version. The rates by conviction below are reported per version and never pooled.
Calibrating: no call made under proof-methodology-v3 has resolved yet, so this method has no figures to report. Its rates appear here as its calls resolve, and earlier methods are never pooled into them.
Educational analysis, not advice. We hide any rate until we have enough calls to report it honestly.
Educational analysis, not advice. We hide any rate until we have enough calls to report it honestly.
Showing 201 to 210 of 3279 ledger rows, newest first. Ordering is fixed and there is no filter, so nothing can be sorted or hidden out of view.
What counts as right is the bar we committed to when the call was made: the move it has to clear, from the price at the time, by the date shown. It was written down before the outcome existed and cannot be changed afterwards. Grading is a symmetric band, not a single line — clearing the bar is right, moving the same distance the other way is wrong, and landing between the two is neither. A near miss is recorded as its own outcome rather than rounded into a win or a loss, because rounding it either way would quietly flatter or damage every tier.
| Instrument | Conviction | Published | Decided by | What counts as right | Outcome | Method | Record hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BKEThe Buckle, Inc. | likely | 3 Oct 2026 | 18 Dec 2026 | Recorded rule: vertical_credit_spread_at_expiry | Awaiting result | proof-methodology-v2 | 5b45f5ff8145… |
CATOThe Cato Corporation | confirmed | 3 Oct 2026 | 17 Oct 2026 | Rises 5.5% from $2.3900 | Awaiting result | proof-methodology-v2 | 19f71e100cab… |
DLNGDynagas LNG Partners LP | confirmed | 3 Oct 2026 | 17 Oct 2026 | Rises 3.8% from $3.7800 | Awaiting result | proof-methodology-v2 | ce75a8128bef… |
BORRBorr Drilling Limited | confirmed | 3 Oct 2026 | 20 Nov 2026 | Rises into the $4.0000/$5.0000 call by expiry (paid $0.3500) | Awaiting result | proof-methodology-v2 | edc86132c518… |
DAOYoudao Inc | likely | 3 Oct 2026 | 17 Oct 2026 | Falls 6.0% from $15.15 | Awaiting result | proof-methodology-v2 | dba7fcc6fb9b… |
WMGWarner Music Group Corp. Class A Common Stock | likely | 3 Oct 2026 | 17 Oct 2026 | Moves 7.2% either way from $27.05 | Awaiting result | proof-methodology-v2 | a6b9f627e689… |
BJBJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | confirmed | 3 Oct 2026 | 17 Oct 2026 | Rises 3.1% from $94.36 | Awaiting result | proof-methodology-v2 | 5be57d51d4a9… |
APIAgora, Inc. | likely | 3 Oct 2026 | 17 Oct 2026 | Moves 10.4% either way from $4.1400 | Awaiting result | proof-methodology-v2 | 4bfb96e4c918… |
CHTRCharter Communications, Inc. | likely | 3 Oct 2026 | 17 Oct 2026 | Rises 6.6% from $111.37 | Awaiting result | proof-methodology-v2 | 5abac16a6b2d… |
CAVACAVA Group, Inc. | likely | 2 Oct 2026 | 16 Oct 2026 | Moves 11.0% either way from $54.10 | Awaiting result | proof-methodology-v2 | da0e07b41881… |
Before any of this went live, we ran the engine over 2019 to 2026 of market history to see whether the signal held up: 1,434 company events, measured against 6,175 ordinary weeks for the same names. The test was designed before it was run, so the results could not be tuned afterwards to look better.
| Move size (in normal-swing multiples) | Event weeks | Baseline weeks | How much more often | After removing the market’s move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥1.0σ | 52.4% | 23.9% | 2.19x (likely range 1.79 to 2.69x) | 2.65x (likely range 2.09 to 3.34x) |
| ≥1.5σ | 36.5% | 9.8% | 3.74x (likely range 2.72 to 5.15x) | 4.67x (likely range 3.27 to 6.66x) |
| ≥2.0σ | 26.2% | 4.1% | 6.4x (likely range 4.03 to 10.08x) | 7.9x (likely range 5.03 to 12.74x) |
The catalyst edge holds up whether the market is rising or falling: 4.00x more often in weeks the market rose, 3.29x in weeks it fell.
Momentum is honestly closed: net of the market’s own move, its 10-day directional hit rate is 49.1% (CI 47.0%–51.4%), no better than a coin flip, which is why momentum on its own adds no confidence and we price these trades assuming no edge.
Educational analysis, not investment advice. Pulse surfaces and explains structures; it does not recommend securities or know your full circumstances.