Pulse Capital

Proof

Every opportunity we have ever surfaced, with the rule that decides it written down before the outcome existed. Nothing here is chosen after the fact — the scan writes each row, and this page has no filter that could hide one.

Corrections: 12 results have been corrected and now read as No result. Each compared two prices quoted against different share counts, a stock split between the entry and the resolution, so the difference was never a return. Together they carried -277.5R, which the record above no longer includes. The superseded rows are still listed below, marked, and never edited. Corrected 7 October 2026.

Method change: from 7 October 2026, under proof-methodology-v3, a call whose bar to clear was under half a percent no longer counts towards the average return. A bar that small makes any move look enormous: 31 such calls carried -137.39R between them. They still count as right or wrong, and no stored result was changed. The average return per idea moved from -0.04 R to +0.09 R over 1,031 calls with a measured return. New calls never set a bar under half a percent. The rates by conviction further down are reported per method version; the totals at the top of this page cover every version.

Calls on record
1749
Resolved, all methods
316 of 1459 right
Awaiting resolution
290
Recording since
27 July 2026

316 of 1459 resolved calls cleared their bar (21.7%), across every method version

Every resolved call is in that denominator, including the ones that went nowhere. Counting only clear wins and clear losses would drop them and inflate the rate. This count pools every method version. The rates by conviction below are reported per version and never pooled.

Proof under proof-methodology-v3: how its calls played out

Calibrating: no call made under proof-methodology-v3 has resolved yet, so this method has no figures to report. Its rates appear here as its calls resolve, and earlier methods are never pooled into them.

Graded outcomes: 0

    Educational analysis, not advice. We hide any rate until we have enough calls to report it honestly.

    Earlier method: proof-methodology-v2

    Proof under proof-methodology-v2: how its calls played out
    Graded outcomes: 1381
    stronger grades really do win more
    • confirmed43% hit rate (from 475 calls)
    • likely37% hit rate (from 906 calls)

    Educational analysis, not advice. We hide any rate until we have enough calls to report it honestly.

    The ledger

    Showing 1 to 10 of 3220 ledger rows, newest first. Ordering is fixed and there is no filter, so nothing can be sorted or hidden out of view.

    What counts as right is the bar we committed to when the call was made: the move it has to clear, from the price at the time, by the date shown. It was written down before the outcome existed and cannot be changed afterwards. Grading is a symmetric band, not a single line — clearing the bar is right, moving the same distance the other way is wrong, and landing between the two is neither. A near miss is recorded as its own outcome rather than rounded into a win or a loss, because rounding it either way would quietly flatter or damage every tier.

    InstrumentConvictionPublishedDecided byWhat counts as rightOutcomeMethodRecord hash
    PETSPetMed Express, Inc. Common Stock
    		confirmed12 Oct 202626 Oct 2026Rises 4.5% from $1.2800
    Awaiting result
    		proof-methodology-v32864f1728331…
    WOOFPetco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.
    		confirmed12 Oct 202626 Oct 2026Falls 4.4% from $2.2400
    Awaiting result
    		proof-methodology-v313fbaf9105e8…
    PFLTPennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd
    		likely12 Oct 202626 Oct 2026Rises 2.5% from $6.6800
    Awaiting result
    		proof-methodology-v3556a616c8898…
    GOTUGaotu Techedu Inc DRC
    		confirmed12 Oct 202626 Oct 2026Rises 5.1% from $2.7100
    Awaiting result
    		proof-methodology-v3bcdb6cbfd4cb…
    TLRYTilray Inc
    		likely11 Oct 202625 Oct 2026Moves 10.8% either way from $3.5400
    Awaiting result
    		proof-methodology-v3504c9315805e…
    BZHBeazer Homes USA, Inc. New
    		confirmed11 Oct 202625 Oct 2026Rises 5.7% from $33.41
    Awaiting result
    		proof-methodology-v3cf6cc5074c27…
    NMMNavios Maritime Partners LP Unit
    		confirmed11 Oct 202625 Oct 2026Rises 3.2% from $91.99
    Awaiting result
    		proof-methodology-v3450d6e3b4201…
    BNTCBenitec Biopharma Inc. Common Stock
    		confirmed11 Oct 202625 Oct 2026Falls 5.2% from $8.7500
    Awaiting result
    		proof-methodology-v3cf3dc5db1176…
    PFLTPennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd
    		confirmed11 Oct 202625 Oct 2026Rises 2.5% from $6.6800
    Awaiting result
    		proof-methodology-v352131b86124d…
    GOTUGaotu Techedu Inc DRC
    		likely11 Oct 202625 Oct 2026Moves 10.3% either way from $2.7100
    Awaiting result
    		proof-methodology-v3dc7f714a22f3…
    Backtested record
    replayed history, not live calls

    Before any of this went live, we ran the engine over 2019 to 2026 of market history to see whether the signal held up: 1,434 company events, measured against 6,175 ordinary weeks for the same names. The test was designed before it was run, so the results could not be tuned afterwards to look better.

    Move size (in normal-swing multiples)Event weeksBaseline weeksHow much more oftenAfter removing the market’s move
    ≥1.0σ52.4%23.9%2.19x (likely range 1.79 to 2.69x)2.65x (likely range 2.09 to 3.34x)
    ≥1.5σ36.5%9.8%3.74x (likely range 2.72 to 5.15x)4.67x (likely range 3.27 to 6.66x)
    ≥2.0σ26.2%4.1%6.4x (likely range 4.03 to 10.08x)7.9x (likely range 5.03 to 12.74x)

    The catalyst edge holds up whether the market is rising or falling: 4.00x more often in weeks the market rose, 3.29x in weeks it fell.

    Momentum is honestly closed: net of the market’s own move, its 10-day directional hit rate is 49.1% (CI 47.0%–51.4%), no better than a coin flip, which is why momentum on its own adds no confidence and we price these trades assuming no edge.

    • Replay evidence, not the live record: these grades come from replayed history, not from calls the engine published in production. The live track record above grades itself as each call resolves.
    • Today's list of names only: companies that disappeared before our data began are missing, which can flatter results. Names that delist after 2026 keep their record, so this only improves over time.
    • Earnings dates as known today: we did not record when past dates were revised, so a small quirk remains that if anything understates the result. New revisions are now captured.
    • The replayed set of names differs from what the live scan shows day to day, so these rates describe the signal itself, not the exact mix you would have seen on any given day.

    How to check this yourself

    What this does not claim

    Educational analysis, not investment advice. Pulse surfaces and explains structures; it does not recommend securities or know your full circumstances.