SPY: measured event reaction history
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has moved a median of 0.5% on fomc events. Every figure below is measured from our own observations, with the sample size stated alongside it.
| Event type | Typical move | Directional bias | Largest move | Observations (N) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fomc | 0.5% | +0.1% | 10.9% | 1642 |
| Jobless Claims | 0.5% | +0.1% | 8.5% | 723 |
| Nfp | 0.5% | +0.1% | 7.8% | 456 |
| Pce | 0.5% | +0.1% | 4.3% | 286 |
| Cpi | 0.6% | +0.1% | 9.6% | 184 |
| Retail Sales | 0.5% | +0.1% | 5.1% | 184 |
| Unemployment Rate | 0.5% | +0.1% | 7.8% | 171 |
| Gdp | 0.6% | +0.1% | 3.7% | 168 |
| Ppi | 0.6% | +0.1% | 8.5% | 165 |
Typical move is the median absolute move, so direction is ignored. Directional bias is the median signed move: a negative figure means this instrument has more often fallen on that event type than risen. Observations span 2 January 2013 to 8 October 2026.
| Release | Typical move | Directional bias | Observations (N) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fomc | 0.5% | +0.1% | 2844 |
| Jobless Claims | 0.5% | +0.1% | 732 |
| Nfp | 0.5% | +0.1% | 484 |
| Pce | 0.5% | +0.1% | 425 |
| Cpi | 0.6% | +0.1% | 341 |
| Retail Sales | 0.5% | +0.1% | 184 |
| Unemployment Rate | 0.5% | +0.1% | 172 |
| Gdp | 0.6% | +0.1% | 168 |
| Ppi | 0.6% | +0.2% | 166 |
Measured on the days these macro releases landed. Only release types with at least six observations are shown, so nothing here rests on a thinner sample than the page itself.
Everything above is history: how SPY has behaved, not what to do about it. Pulse members see this instrument's live opportunities ranked by conviction, each one carrying the specific evidence that produced it, including the ones Pulse says to skip and why.
Educational analysis, not investment advice. Pulse surfaces and explains structures; it does not recommend securities or know your full circumstances.